Según un nuevo estudio de los investigadores de la oficina meteorológica del Reino Unido, la probabilidad de cruzar la línea roja del calentamiento global ha aumentado drásticamente. Según investigadores de la Oficina Meteorológica del Reino Unido, existe un 50 % de posibilidades de que la tierra se caliente 1,5 °C en los próximos cinco años. El aumento sólo será temporal, pero los investigadores están preocupados por la diferencia de temperatura general.
Es casi seguro que de 2022 a 2026 batirá el récord de los más calurosos. Los niveles de gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera han aumentado en las últimas tres décadas, y las temperaturas globales han respondido aumentando a un ritmo similar.
En 2015 la temperatura media mundial subió por primera vez 1 °C por encima de los niveles preindustriales, que se establecen como las temperaturas registradas a mediados del siglo XIX. También fue el año en que los líderes políticos firmaron el acuerdo climático de París, que comprometió al mundo a mantener el aumento de la temperatura global por debajo de los 2 °C y a trabajar para mantenerlo por debajo de los 1,5 °C.
El panorama del cambio climática en el 2022
El último informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC) muestra un panorama muy preocupante: el cambio climático ya tiene efectos en todo el mundo, y los impactos son mucho mayores si no reducimos a la mitad nuestras emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI). Este informe fue publicado el 28 de febrero de 2022, y se basa en 34,000 estudios e incluye la participación de 34,000 estudios, 270 autores de 67 países.
Por ser uno de los informes más recientes y completos, hemos decidido extraer algunos puntos relevantes del mismo, para poder compartirte una importante actualización sobre el impacto del cambio climático en estos años.
Los impactos climáticos fueron más generalizados y severos de lo esperado
El cambio climático ha causado efectos generalizados en todas las regiones del mundo con un calentamiento de solo 1,1°C. Sequías devastadoras, calor extremo e inundaciones récord que han amenazado la seguridad alimentaria y los medios de vida de millones de personas. Desde 2008, tormentas e inundaciones devastadoras han obligado a más de 20 millones de personas a abandonar sus hogares cada año. Desde 1961, el crecimiento de la productividad agrícola en África se ha desacelerado en un tercio debido al cambio climático.
Hoy, la mitad de la población mundial experimenta problemas de suministro de agua durante al menos un mes al año. Los incendios forestales queman áreas más amplias en muchas áreas, provocando cambios irreversibles en el paisaje. Las temperaturas muy altas permiten la propagación de enfermedades como la malaria, así como enfermedades transmitidas por el agua, como el cólera. El cambio climático también afecta a especies y ecosistemas enteros. Animales como la rana dorada y Melomys rubicola (pequeños roedores) ahora están extintos debido al calentamiento global. Otros animales, como los zorros voladores, las aves marinas y los corales, están muriendo, mientras que miles más se han trasladado a latitudes y altitudes más altas.
Los efectos del cambio climático a corto plazo serán peores
Incluso si el planeta se descarboniza con gran velocidad, los gases de efecto invernadero que ya están en la atmósfera (y las tendencias actuales de las emisiones) favorecerá que algunos impactos climáticos más significativos a 2040 sean inevitables. El IPCC estima que dentro de solo una década en el próximo siglo, el cambio climático podría llevar a la pobreza extrema a una población entre 32 y 132 millones. El calentamiento global pondrá en peligro la seguridad alimentaria y aumentará las muertes relacionadas con el calor, las enfermedades cardíacas y los problemas de salud mental.
Por ejemplo, en un escenario de altas temperaturas, el aumento del riesgo de inundación (por el Deshielo de los polos) podría provocar que 48 000 niños menores de 15 años mueran de diarrea para 2030. Las especies y los ecosistemas también enfrentarán cambios drásticos, como la incapacidad de los manglares para resistir el aumento del nivel del mar, la disminución de las especies marinas que dependen del hielo y la tasa de muerte masiva de árboles.
La desigualdad, los conflictos y los desafíos del desarrollo aumentan la vulnerabilidad a los riesgos climáticos
Actualmente, entre tres mil trescientos y tres mil seiscientos millones de personas viven en países vulnerables a los choques climáticos, y los puntos críticos globales se concentran en los pequeños Estados insulares en desarrollo, el Ártico, el sur de Asia, América Central, América del Sur y gran parte de África Sub-sahariana.
Los problemas de desigualdad, conflicto y desarrollo, como la pobreza, la mala gestión y el acceso limitado a servicios básicos como la atención médica, no solo aumentan la vulnerabilidad al riesgo, sino que también limitan la capacidad de las sociedades para adaptarse al cambio climático. Por ejemplo, en países de alto riesgo, las tasas de mortalidad por sequías, tormentas e inundaciones; entre 2010 y 2020 fueron 15 veces más altas que en países de alta vulnerabilidad. Los aumentos más rápidos en la vulnerabilidad urbana se han producido en los asentamientos informales, donde las viviendas son deficientes, el acceso insuficiente a los servicios básicos y los recursos limitados obstaculizan los esfuerzos de resiliencia. Este desafío es particularmente agudo en el África subsahariana, donde el 60 % de la población urbana vive en asentamientos informales, y en Asia, donde 529 millones de personas viven en estas áreas vulnerables.
Muchas comunidades rurales también se enfrentan a mayores riesgos climáticos, en particular los pueblos indígenas y aquellos cuyos medios de vida dependen de sectores directamente expuestos a los riesgos climáticos, como la agricultura, la pesca y el turismo. A medida que se intensifiquen los efectos del clima, algunas personas no tendrán más remedio que mudarse a los centros urbanos.
La adaptación y las soluciones son muy importantes.
Las políticas climáticas de al menos 170 países ahora incluyen la adaptación, pero muchos aún no han pasado de la planificación a la implementación. El IPCC dice que los esfuerzos actuales siguen siendo en gran medida acumulativos, reactivos y de pequeña escala, y la mayoría se centra en los impactos actuales o los riesgos a corto plazo. Sigue habiendo brechas entre el nivel actual de adaptación y el nivel de necesidad, en gran parte debido al apoyo financiero limitado.
La buena noticia es que las opciones de adaptación actuales pueden reducir los riesgos climáticos si se financian por completo y se implementan con mayor rapidez. El Informe IPCC 2022 crea nuevos antecedentes al analizar la viabilidad, la eficacia y el potencial de diferentes medidas de adaptación climática para obtener beneficios colaterales, como la mejora de la salud o la reducción de la pobreza. Los dos enfoques de adaptación al cambio climático que se evaluarán incluyen:
Adaptación basada en ecosistemas
Este enfoque abarca una amplia gama de estrategias, desde la protección, restauración y gestión sostenible de los ecosistemas hasta métodos agrícolas más sostenibles, como plantas integradas en las explotaciones, aumento de la diversidad de cultivos y plantación de árboles en pastizales. La adaptación basada en los ecosistemas puede reducir los riesgos climáticos que muchas personas ya enfrentan, como la sequía, el calor extremo, las inundaciones y los incendios, al tiempo que proporciona beneficios simultáneos para la biodiversidad, los medios de vida, la salud, la seguridad alimentaria y la captura de carbono.
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Nueva tecnología e infraestructura
Nueva evidencia muestra que una combinación de soluciones tecnológicas y basadas en la naturaleza, como canales de control de inundaciones, puede ayudar a reducir los riesgos hídricos y costeros, especialmente en las ciudades. El acceso a mejores tecnologías, como variedades de cultivos más resistentes, ganadería mejorada o energía solar y eólica, puede ayudar a desarrollar la resiliencia. Sin embargo, algunas respuestas de adaptación climática pueden ser dañinas si están mal diseñadas o implementadas de manera inapropiada. Por ejemplo, la expansión de los sistemas de riego podría abordar los riesgos climáticos a corto plazo, pero también podría agotar las escasas reservas de agua subterránea.
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La ciencia es clara: el cambio climático está poniendo en riesgo el bienestar de las personas y del planeta. La acción tardía corre el riesgo de que los efectos del cambio climático sean demasiado catastróficos para que nuestro mundo los reconozca. Los próximos años presentan una pequeña ventana de oportunidad para lograr un futuro sostenible y vívido para todos. Cambiar de rumbo requerirá esfuerzos inmediatos, ambiciosos y concertados para reducir las emisiones, generar resiliencia, preservar los ecosistemas y aumentar drásticamente los fondos para la adaptación y el manejo de pérdidas y daños.
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